Almost 100 percent of all drivers will choose an electric car by 2030. At least if it is to be new and driven around Norway.
It didn't work this year. That is, to outcompete drivers' desire and courage for new gasoline and diesel cars in Norway. But that's what it will look like in 2030.
At least according to a new forecast that the Norwegian OFV has developed together with the Danish Automobile Importers' Association (BIL).
While a political majority hopes that Norwegians will only buy electric cars by 2025, the new forecast predicts that this will not happen until 2030. By that time, there will not be much else to choose from in Norway.
– Our model says that 130,001 electric cars, 4,169 fossil cars (including Toyota hybrids) and 982 plug-in hybrids will be registered for the first time in 2025, says Sales and Marketing Manager Laila Mikaelsen at OFV.
However, the model is also fraught with uncertainty. Something that OFV and BIL believe could surprise them. Understood in the sense that 99.6 percent of Norwegians will only buy new electric cars by 2030 .
However, neither OFV nor BIL expect to see the former glory days of car sales return. Not just with the former. Until around 2015, just over 150,000 new cars were sold in Norway every single year.
The industry does not expect this to happen again until 2030 at the latest. Conversely, the 130,000 new cars sold in 2024 are close to the average over the past 25 years.
Here at home, drivers' appetite for new cars is somewhat greater. In 2024, 173,047 new passenger cars were sold in Denmark. On the other hand, this is only a very small plus compared to the level from 2023. We are talking about 304 extra cars.
