Neither taps nor oil wells will be turned off just yet. Demand will fall no earlier than 2040, according to the world's largest oil trader.
It is very possible that Danes and Norwegians will drive around in electric cars. But oil demand is not expected to fall until after 2040 at the earliest.
This is the assessment of Vitol, the world's largest independent energy trader, according to Berlingske .
Vitol predicts that demand will peak around 2030 at 110 million tonnes per day. After that, it is expected to stabilize around the current 105 million tonnes per day for at least ten years.
This forecast differs from other reports around the energy sector.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) expects an earlier peak in demand, namely in 2029, with 105.6 million tons per day.
The oil company BP has a different view in a forecast from July 2024. It predicts a decline in oil consumption already by the end of this decade. This means that 'only' around 91.4 million tons of oil will be used each day in 2040.
The uncertainty about future demand for oil, according to analysts, is partly attributed to the ongoing green transition.
In this process, fossil fuels are gradually being replaced by more sustainable alternatives. But even that forecast is associated with a great deal of uncertainty.
However, Vitol also believes that a decline will be detected. According to the Dutch-Swiss company, oil for gasoline production will fall to a level of 4.5 million tons per day by 2040.
Despite this, the company expects overall oil demand to remain robust. The giant points to unchanged consumption in industry, and developing countries will demand even more oil.
However, a lot can change in that regard. Within the EU, for example, there is still pressure to lift the ban on the combustion engine in 2035. Just as car brands will have relaxed their restrictions on the share of electric cars in production.
And in the United States, re-elected President Donald Trump has promised his voters that he will open up more oil drilling in the country and offshore.
Furthermore, the president wants to end state support for electric cars, because according to him, it is not the state's job to choose a car for drivers. Read more about it here .
